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Using Artificial Intelligence to Predict Next Summer’s NBA Rookie Max Contracts

Nick Crain – 8/26/22

Every offseason, several young rising stars earn rookie max contracts. Over the past few years, we’ve seen an average of four players every summer that have performed well enough to earn this type of deal, which comes out to being 25% of the salary cap. 2022
  • Ja Morant
  • Darius Garland
  • Zion Williamson
  • Deandre Ayton 
2021
  • Luka Doncic
  • Trae Young
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
  • Michael Porter Jr.
2020
  • Donovan Mitchell
  • Jayson Tatum
  • Bam Adebayo
  • De’Aaron Fox
Using ProFitX’s Contract Analysis model, we can project which four players we think will earn rookie max deals next summer. Players on this type of deal will make between $35 and $40 million per season, giving us a good benchmark when using the model to predict who is worth it.  Members of the 2019 NBA Draft class most recently became eligible to sign rookie max extensions, as Ja Morant, Zion Williamson and Darius Garland each secured their bag this summer. With that in mind, there’s still one player from that class that hasn’t agreed to an extension, but should still be worth max money moving forward.  R.J. Barrett ProFitX 2022-23 Contract Value Projection: $32.97M While he is eligible but hasn’t been extended, we project Barrett will be worth a rookie max deal. A rising star and cornerstone of the New York Knicks, he’s only gotten better with each season. It won’t be until next summer that members of the 2020 NBA Draft are eligible for their rookie max extensions. We project three players from that class will ultimately get the max deal from their respective teams.  Anthony Edwards  ProFitX 2022-23 Contract Value Projection: $37.18M Since being drafted No. 1 overall, Edwards has proven he’s one of the best young players in the entire league. We project he will be playing at an All-NBA level next season and is already worth rookie max money. LaMelo Ball ProFitX 2022-23 Contract Value Projection: $36.61M Similar to Edwards, Ball already projects to be worth the full rookie max. Just two seasons into his NBA career, he’s already the face of the Charlotte Hornets and should be a no-brainer for this deal next summer. When Ball is on the floor, the Hornets are always a better team. Tyrese Haliburton ProFitX 2022-23 Contract Value Projection: $29.49M While our model projects Haliburton to be worth slightly less than max money, he’s improving at an incredible rate. Given an extension wouldn’t kick in until the 2023-24 season, it’s worth taking the risk on a guy like Haliburton, especially if he further breaks out this season in Indiana. With that in mind, and if history repeats itself, the four players projected to earn rookie max deals next year are:
  • Anthony Edwards
  • LaMelo Ball
  • Tyrese Haliburton
  • R.J. Barrett
Other eligible players to keep an eye on: Tyler Herro, Jordan Poole, Tyrese Maxey, PJ Washington, Saddiq Bey, Desmond Bane

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