Nick Crain | 12/6/22

  Over the past several years, John Collins has been one of the most discussed trade targets in the entire NBA. Leading up to his restricted free agency in the summer of 2021, the Atlanta Hawks considered offers due to a discrepancy in what the team was willing to offer Collins and what he wanted.   Regardless of the back-and-forth, a compromise was made and Collins signed a new five-year, $125M deal to stay in Atlanta for the long haul.   While many assumed this meant he would no longer be discussed frequently on the trade block, that simply wasn’t the case. In just the second year of this new deal, the 25-year-old is already once again at the forefront of trade reports.   Multiple reports early in the 2022-23 campaign have indicated that the Hawks would be willing to move Collins in the right deal.   Unfortunately for the athletic forward, his role on the team continues to diminish. In the 2019-20 season, a 21-year-old Collins averaged 21.6 points per game while taking nearly 15 shot attempts. He was a focal point of the offense and shot efficiently from all over the floor.     Since then, his number of shot attempts have dwindled every single season and have now been cut by a third since that point. Collins’ role just isn’t what it used to be. This season, he’s averaging 12.6 points and 7.5 rebounds per game while shooting 48.8% from the floor.   While it’s pretty clear he still has the upside to help a team and could benefit from a fresh start, it will take assets to acquire Collins. As such, teams have to think about not only what they’re willing to give up, but also about whether or not he’s worth the contract they’d bring on.         Collins is due $78.5 million over the next three seasons, meaning if he picks up his player option in the final year he won’t become a free agent until after the 2025-26 season.   This is enough money that franchises have to really evaluate his performance value before taking on that much long-term money, and that’s where ProFitX can help with the analysis.         Our models indicate that Collins is actually underachieving this season relative to what he’s being paid. With that in mind, we project that he will have an uptick in production over the next two seasons as he enters the window in which most players begin their prime. At that point, he will be outperforming his deal.     In just a matter of seconds, teams can leverage ProFitX’s Athledex to dig deeper into Collins’ production, value and even how he fits alongside players on different rosters. Having a tool like the NBA Athledex is a necessity when evaluating a potential trade target, as teams are also bringing on that player’s contract.